Poker Variance Calculator
Enter your win rate or ROI and see what luck alone can do to your results: the range of outcomes, how deep a downswing can get and what bankroll covers it. It works for cash games, tournaments and Spins.
Win rate and standard deviation per 100 hands.
Your game
Typical for this game: 75 to 120. Use your own if you have it.
Only for the money view.
Only a label; no conversion.
Optional
Include rakeback
Adds the rakeback to your win rate.
Shows your chance of going broke.
Compare with my real results
See where your actual result sits, and whether it can tell luck from skill.
How to Read the Results
Expected and typical
The expected result is the average over many runs of the same game. You will rarely land exactly on it.
The typical result is the median: half of runs finish above it and half below. In cash games the two are the same. In tournaments and Spins the typical result is lower, because a few big scores carry the profit.
The bands
The bands show where results land. Seven runs in ten stay inside the darker band and nineteen in twenty inside the lighter one.
A run that leaves the lighter band is a one-in-forty outcome in that direction.
Finishing down
The chance of finishing down is the number most players underestimate. Even with a real edge, a short sample can end below zero. The shorter the sample and the bigger the swings, the likelier it is.
How Far Results Can Swing
Three examples from the calculator's default inputs.
Cash games
14.6%
finish a 100,000-hand sample down
A 3 bb/100 winner with a standard deviation of 90. The typical worst downswing is about 2,360 bb (24 buy-ins).
Tournaments
+23
buy-ins typical, against +50 expected
A 10% ROI in a 1,000-runner field over 500 tournaments. About 45% of runs end down.
Spins
7%
finish down, against 17% from a normal formula
Standard table, 5% ROI, 2,000 spins. The biggest prize carries most of the swing and is rarely hit.
Cash Games: Win Rate, Standard Deviation and Sample Size
Your win rate in bb/100 is what your tracker shows after the rake you paid. Your standard deviation measures how much your results swing around it; PokerTracker calls it Std Dev. If you do not have yours, these ranges are typical:
| Game | Typical range | Pre-filled |
|---|---|---|
| No-limit Hold'em, 6-max | 75 to 120 | 90 |
| No-limit Hold'em, full ring | 60 to 80 | 70 |
| No-limit Hold'em, heads-up | 100 to 140 | 120 |
| Pot-limit Omaha, 6-max | 120 to 160 | 140 |
| Pot-limit Omaha, full ring | 100 to 140 | 120 |
A wrong standard deviation distorts the answer more than a wrong win rate, so use your own when you can. It also decides how long it takes to know your win rate. To pin it down to plus or minus 5 bb/100 with 95% confidence at a standard deviation of 100 takes about 153,664 hands, and plus or minus 2.5 takes about 614,656. The Your results tab applies this to your own hands.
Tournaments: The Payout Structure Matters
The first prize is the key input
Almost every entry returns nothing, and a rare deep run returns many buy-ins. How much those runs pay depends on the payout structure, so the calculator builds one for your field.
The most useful number you can give it is the first prize as a share of the prize pool, which every tournament lobby shows. With it, the standard deviation per tournament lands within a few per cent of a published payout table. You can also paste the full table.
ROI sets the cash rate
Your ROI sets how much better than average you finish. The calculator solves for the cash rate that matches it, so the cash rate is a result, not an input.
If it looks wrong for your games, your ROI or the structure does not match them. Longest runs without a cash are exact, not simulated.
Spins: The Biggest Prize Drives the Maths
In Spins a random multiplier sets the prize pool before the cards are dealt, so variance depends on the table you play. The five illustrative tables below break even at a first-place rate of roughly 36%, yet their standard deviation per spin differs more than tenfold:
| Table | Rake | Top prize | Odds | SD per spin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Light jackpot | 7% | 1,000x | 1 in 100,000 | 2.1 |
| Standard | 7% | 12,000x | 1 in 10,000,000 | 2.3 |
| Medium jackpot | 9% | 10,000x | 1 in 1,000,000 | 4.9 |
| Heavy jackpot | 7% | 3,600x | 1 in 100,000 | 5.5 |
| Very heavy jackpot | 7% | 100,000x | 1 in 5,000,000 | 20.7 |
Standard deviation is in buy-ins. The top prize is so rare that you will almost never see it, so the calculator shows two swings: the whole table's, and the one you will feel over your number of spins. Use your room's current table in the editor for exact results. The presets are shapes built from published tables, not claims about any room.
Bankroll, Risk of Ruin and Rakeback
Always ask for how long
Bankroll advice varies tenfold because it can mean two different things: the bankroll that keeps the risk of going broke low over a number of games, or the one that does so if you never stop. The second is much larger.
This calculator always says which one it shows: the bankroll for the sample you entered, and for cash games also the bankroll for playing forever. Neither assumes you move down in stakes when things go badly, which most players do.
Rakeback and variance
Rakeback is a steady return on the rake or fees you pay, paid as cash or tournament tickets depending on the offer. It lifts your expected result and lowers the chance of finishing down, but it does not remove the swings. Switch on Include rakeback to see the effect on every figure.
Browse the rakeback deals to compare offers.
How This Calculator Works
Cash games
The result after N hands is treated as normal, with mean win rate x N/100 and standard deviation SD x sqrt(N/100). Bands, the chance of finishing down, risk of ruin and sample sizes are exact. Downswing depth and length come from 20,000 simulated runs, with a correction for the dips between checkpoints.
Tournaments
The chance of finishing in each place is the smallest change from 'every place equally likely' that matches your ROI, applied to a payout ladder built from published ladders. Totals over many tournaments are exact in distribution. Downswings and bankroll figures are simulated.
Spins
Every figure comes from the multiplier table. Second and third place are derived from a standard model of three equal-sized stacks, with the prize split from the table.
Your results
The calculator reports how often a result at least this good would happen if your true edge were zero, and a 95% range for your true edge. No prior belief is assumed.
Limits
Every hand, tournament or spin is an independent draw at a constant edge. Bounties, re-entries, satellites, deals and changes in your skill are not modelled. Simulated figures carry a small margin of error, shown by the precision of the number.
Poker Variance: Common Questions
More poker questions? Visit our FAQ.
What is variance in poker?
Variance is the gap between the result your skill should produce on average and the result you actually get over a stretch of play. Two players with the same edge can finish a month far apart, because cards, pots and prize draws are random. This calculator turns your win rate or ROI into the range of results that luck alone can produce.
How many hands do I need to know my win rate?
To pin a win rate down to plus or minus 5 bb/100 with 95% confidence at a standard deviation of 100 bb/100 you need about 153,664 hands. Plus or minus 2.5 bb/100 needs about 614,656. A lower standard deviation shortens that. Enter your own numbers in the Your results tab to see where you stand.
Is my downswing normal?
Probably. With a 3 bb/100 win rate and a standard deviation of 90, the typical worst downswing over 100,000 hands is about 2,360 bb (24 buy-ins), and one run in twenty goes much deeper. The Downswings tab shows how often a fall of your size happens at your win rate, and the Your results tab shows how unusual your actual result is.
What standard deviation should I use for cash games?
Use the figure your tracker shows as Std Dev in bb/100. Without one, typical ranges are 75 to 120 for six-max no-limit hold'em, 60 to 80 for full ring, 100 to 140 for heads-up and 120 to 160 for six-max pot-limit Omaha. The calculator pre-fills the middle of each range. A wrong standard deviation distorts the result more than a wrong win rate.
Why do winning tournament players finish down so often?
Almost every entry returns nothing, and a rare deep run returns many buy-ins, so the profit comes from a few results you may not have had yet. With a 10% ROI over 500 tournaments in a 1,000-runner field, the expected result is about +50 buy-ins but the typical result is only about +23, and roughly 45% of runs still finish the sample down.
Why is Spins variance so high?
The prize pool is drawn at random before each game, and the biggest prizes carry most of the variance. Across the five illustrative tables the standard deviation per spin runs from about 2.1 to about 20.7 buy-ins. Those top prizes are so rare that you probably will not see one in the next few thousand spins, so the calculator shows both the table's full swing and the swing you will actually feel.
How big should my bankroll be?
It depends on how long you play, which is why advice that quotes one number is unreliable. The Bankroll tab gives the amount that keeps the risk of going broke at 1%, 2%, 5% or 10% over the hands, tournaments or spins you entered. For cash games it also shows the amount needed if you never stop. Neither assumes you move down in stakes.
How accurate is this calculator?
Bands, chance of finishing down, risk of ruin and sample sizes are exact for the model. Downswing figures, and the bankroll figures for tournaments and Spins, come from simulated runs and are shown with the precision they support. The model is only as good as your inputs: win rate, ROI and standard deviation are assumed to stay constant, and real games drift.
Does rakeback change variance?
Rakeback adds a steady return on the rake or fees you pay. It lifts your expected result and lowers the chance of finishing down, but it does not remove the swings. Switch on Include rakeback to see the effect on every figure. It is paid as cash or tournament tickets, depending on the offer.
What can this calculator not tell me?
It treats every hand, tournament or spin as an independent draw at a constant edge. It does not model bounties, re-entries, satellites, deals, changes in your skill or players who move up and down in stakes. Preset payout structures and Spins tables are illustrative shapes. Enter your first prize, a pasted payout table or your room's current table for a closer match.
Poker is a game of skill and chance, and you can lose money. Only play with money you can afford to lose. 18+ only. If gambling stops being fun, reach out to a support organisation in your country. All figures are model estimates from the numbers you entered.